Asian nations are closely watching President Donald Trump’s return to the White House, questioning what it means for their security and whether they should deepen ties with Beijing instead. Trust, once broken, is difficult to restore—and just weeks into his presidency, Trump has already introduced trade tariffs on key partners, only to reverse course, and suggested U.S. involvement in Gaza. The uncertainty has left allies wondering if they’re next, while China seizes the opportunity to fill any leadership vacuum.
If Trump truly wants to enhance U.S. security, he must strengthen Indo-Pacific alliances, not undermine them. Under President Joe Biden, Washington built a network of strategic partnerships, bringing together Australia, Japan, India, South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines. Although many of these nations rely on China as their largest trading partner, Biden’s diplomatic efforts reassured them that a united front would serve their long-term security interests. This strategy also acted as a check on Beijing’s growing influence.
Trump has yet to clarify his foreign policy approach in Asia, but his erratic trade decisions suggest inconsistency. As Ryan Hass, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, notes, Biden prioritized alliances and partnerships in response to a more assertive China. If Trump follows an isolationist path, he risks dismantling these coalitions—alliances that took years to build. His Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, skipping the G-20 meeting in South Africa only gives China more space to position itself as the leader of the Global South, a role it has long sought.
Countries like the Philippines are particularly on edge. The Pentagon’s new Southeast Asia chief, John Andrew Byers, has proposed a “cooperation spiral” with China in the South China Sea—potentially compromising Manila’s interests in the contested waters. Discussions of reducing the U.S. military presence in exchange for fewer Chinese patrols suggest that deterrence is no longer a priority.
Despite these concerns, there are still opportunities for reassurance. The recent Quad foreign ministers’ meeting, held immediately after Trump’s inauguration, was a positive signal. To reinforce America’s commitment, Trump should go further by organizing a Quad leaders’ summit within his first 100 days. Meeting with Australia, India, and Japan—three major Indo-Pacific democracies—would reaffirm U.S. engagement and send a clear message to Beijing.
Meanwhile, Trump has turned his attention to BRICS, a coalition of emerging economies. He recently declared on Truth Social: “The idea that the BRICS countries are trying to move away from the Dollar, while we stand by and watch, is OVER.” With its expansion to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the UAE, and Indonesia, BRICS now includes Asia’s three most populous nations. This shift could impact global economic dynamics, and some countries are already preparing for potential U.S. retaliation.
Malaysia, for instance, expects to face tariffs and is diversifying its trade relationships as a safeguard. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has emphasized the need for proactive measures, expanding economic ties with China, Russia, and Brazil. While Malaysia has historically balanced its relationships with larger powers, its trade dependence on China (15% of exports) and the U.S. (13%) makes this a delicate dance.
Most Asian nations count China as a top trading partner, but many also rely on the U.S. for security. To maintain credibility, the U.S. must ensure the Quad alliance remains relevant. Originally conceived by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the Quad has since become a key instrument of U.S. influence in the Indo-Pacific. Under Biden, ties between Japan and South Korea were strengthened, defense cooperation with the Philippines was enhanced, and the AUKUS alliance was formed, bolstering Australia’s naval capabilities in a region Beijing considers its backyard.
Some diplomatic engagements are already in motion, though without clear strategic coordination. Trump is scheduled to meet Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Friday, followed by talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi next week. The Taiwan Strait is expected to be a major topic in discussions between Tokyo and Washington, with Beijing closely monitoring Trump’s stance on Taiwan. Any signal of commitment—or lack thereof—will play a crucial role in shaping U.S.-China negotiations.
For decades, American security has kept Asia stable while Chinese economic growth has fueled prosperity. With Trump back in office, regional players must reconsider their strategies. If the U.S. can no longer be counted on as a reliable partner, many nations may feel compelled to accommodate Beijing—an outcome that would further erode American influence in the region.
